A government panel to study COVID-19 has said that India has crossed the COVID-19 peak and could possibly bring it under control by early next year if all measures are followed.
It has warned against laxity given the onset of winter and upcoming festivals which may increase susceptibility to the infection.
It warned against relaxation in safety measures which can lead to as much as 26 lakh cases a month, the government-appointed panel said.
It said only 30% of the population has developed immunity so far.
“If all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active cases by February end,” it said.
It said India’s infection numbers could touch 10.5 million by the time the pandemic ends. At present India has over 75 lakh COVID-19 cases.
It said the March lockdown helped prevent fatalities which could have crossed 25 lakh by August this year had lockdown not been implemented. India has over 1 lakh COVID-19 fatalities.
It recommended lockdown now only for narrow geographical areas.
Festival liberties sped up COVID-19 pandemic in Kerala
It further said that evidence showed large gatherings cause rapid spread, and gave the example of Kerala, where Onam celebration from August 22 to September 2 saw a sharp surge in COVID-19cases from September 8 onwards.
It said the infection probability increased by 32% in the state.
The committee made up of members from IITs and ICMR was appointed to come out with “Indian National Supermodel” — a mathematical model for Covid-19 — that can shed light on the likely trajectory of the pandemic in India.
Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) is India’s nodal agency in the fight against COVID-19.
Govt admits to COVDI-19 community transmission
Union health minister Dr Harsh Vardhan on Sunday admitted to community transmission of COVID-19 in certain districts in some states. “But this is not happening countrywide,” the minister said during his weekly address of social media.
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