Dr. Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur has said,” The current surge in Covid-19 cases in India is likely to reach its peak with 50,000-60,000 new cases every day in mid-May. He added, “The prediction was reportedly based on a mathematical model. However, an accurate prediction could be made after a week when the model will have enough data to calculate.”
“50,000 COVID-19 cases will be recorded in the upcoming months according to the model, which is not a big deal for…India whose population is so high,” he said.
Dr. Agrawal further said Covid-19 caused by the prevalent variants might not be as dangerous as it was during the second wave, adding the symptoms are mild and most people are being treated at home. “In most cases, the symptoms are mild and people complaining of cough and cold are being treated at home. In such a situation, Covid should be treated like a regular flu and will not be as dangerous as it was in the second wave,” he said. Prof. Aggarwal said that in India, above 90% and in Uttar Pradesh, around 95% of people have natural immunity.
Dr. Aggarwal claimed that there were two main reasons for the surge in COVID-19 cases. The first reason was that the natural immunity to fight the virus has now reduced in 5% of people.
The second reason was the new COVID-19 variant has been spreading at a fast rate.
Currently, above 90% of people in India have natural immunity, according to the IIT-Kanpur professor.